Supply Chain Strategy For COVID-19 VUCA

While the COVID-19 pandemic is certainly the most significant disruption that the world is facing, it is by no means the only disruption the world and especially the supply chain is facing.  In fact, the level of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) has increased over the last 5 - 8 years through a series of natural disasters, political unrest and most recently of course the pandemic.  What we must learn is not how to address specific disruption events, we must instead develop a strategic plan that identifies potential disruption events that may or may not occur and then identify potential responses that can be selected singly or grouped to respond to the disruption.  

This VUCA response strategy is simply a more robust business continuity plan.  This is dramatically over-simplified, I understand, however what I am focused on is the definition of continuity which has been an established practice for a long time.  This VUCA response strategy requires a more robust process that defines every type of response for every type of disruption that would then be reviewed on a regular basis to validate and update.  This enhanced response strategy must be incorporated as part of the regular continuous improvement process to analyze not only potential process improvement but also potential disruption.  The risk analysis must become part of the regular process for the business and especially the supply chain to allow for a well thought out response that will reduce the impact of the disruption.

I know that many think - how can you evaluate potential risk of a disruption such as a pandemic?  The evaluation is not based on any specific type of risk, it is based on potential impact if and when any service, supplier (especially raw materials or parts suppliers in manufacturing), transportation partner or customer is suddenly shut down.  Another very critical aspect to the risk analysis is the impact sudden changes in package quantity when specific areas of demand are impacted.  For instance, when institutional demand dried up as a result fo COVID-19 and dairy farmers were forced to discard milk.  The risk analysis and continuity planning must focus on the areas of impact and not the impact event in order to be effective and support the needs of your business. 

The continuity analysis and planning must be planned and executed as a continuous process that is reviewed on a quarterly basis and the events that can impact the business must then be reviewed to confirm that the potential impacts are still valid and also review and the response is still valid and most importantly, the triggering events analysis and review process is still valid.  With the increase in business threatening disruptions it is critical to get ahead of the events as much as possible so that the reaction to the event can be triggered in a time frame that will control and limit the impact of the disruption.  The best time to plan for the response to a disruption is before the disruption occurs!

We have entered into a time of VUCA that will continue to impact professional practices and capabilities and then this will carry over into the personal side as well.  Everything is connected and there is a ripple effect across industries that must be anticipated.  It is no longer acceptable to say - who would have expected this type of disruption?  We all must be prepared for disruption of any kind that may occur and then have a response planned and ready to implement.

COVID-19 Disruption Demands Supply Chain Elasticity

The time to react to an extreme disruption such as the COVID-19 pandemic is not when the pandemic is imminent, or in the midst of the pandemic. The time to react is before the pandemic, or the disruption event, to prepare reactions based on the potential. This enables your organization to identify and evaluate potential reactions prior to the event and this dramatically reduces reaction and also ensures appropriate and effective reaction. Reaction to a disruption requires elasticity in the process and the organization in order to bend and stretch rather than break. Reaction to disruption also requires the ability to sense the disruption in time to react.

Recently there is a great deal of bluster focused on the dangers of the global supply chain that suggests the only way to eliminate the risk is to move manufacturing back to the US. This sounds great in a sound bite but is really not feasible and would never move forward. There are a few significant challenges to moving manufacturing back to the US starting with the challenge of an increased cost resulting from

products manufactured in the US. The US has been addicted to the cost savings delivered by global manufacturing and it will be next to impossible to wean off that drug. The other challenge is the people and manufacturing capacity that would be required to meet the consumer demand.

The appropriate solution involves a flexible and nimble global supply chain that incorporates backup and alternative options for both raw materials, manufacturing plants and even transport options to reduce the risk of disruption. The issue is not a global supply chain, the issue is the deficient risk identification and mitigation to react and address disruption. This requires a focus on analysis and reaction to respond and resolve the disruption. The supply chain must be able to react to difficult situations and conditions best described as VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) that requires the continuous ability to sense and react to disruption as it materializes.

As an industry we have implemented the process and the tools to respond to disruptions to ensure business continuity and now the use of these tools must be extended in order to react to the VUCA earlier in order to limit the business disruption. The challenge for the industry is the early planning and preparation for VUCA events so the reaction can be predetermined and practiced so the disruption can be limited. This requires robust tools and capabilities to sense the disruption earlier to allow time to implement the business continuity procedures.

The business continuity procedures must be predefined and practiced regularly so that they can be executed quickly and efficiently in response when the disruption is identified. This is standard operating procedures for businesses in the supply chain. One of the new factors to this continuing challenge is the types of disruption and the ‘surprise’ of the disruption. I think sensing and responding to VUCA must be the key starting point to business continuity. The definition of business disruption must be expanded to focus on VUCA and the analytics must be improved. The business continuity is not all or nothing and should be viewed as modules that should be engaged depending on the situation.

We must accept the fact that we have entered a time of extreme disruption and must focus on the ability to sense the disruption and quickly implement the response to the disruption. This means the business continuity procedures must be extended to be utilized in response more efficiently to the disruption. The first step though is focus on sensing the disruption! This is where tools and technology will play a key role, including advanced analytics and artificial intelligence and even process automation.

Business Continuity In Extreme Disruption

The coronavirus pandemic is another Black Swan event that highlights the importance of a robust and flexible business continuity plan that utilizes big data analytics technology and artificial intelligence to support a reactive and flexible framework rather than a structured process of recovery. We see a discontinuous river of disruptive events that are impacting the supply chain along with businesses and customers and the reactions to these events must be swift in order to limit the impact. The world will not slow down and in fact will only speed up in the types of disruptive events that must be addressed in creative and flexible ways.

The seemingly continuous stream of Black Swan events speaks to the need to sense and respond to these events to limit or even eliminate the impact. Early detection and response to the pending event dramatically reduces the impact of the event and this should be the goal going forward! It makes no sense at all to develop a quick response system that leaps into action when the impact is upon us. This goal of early detection requires a focus on risk analysis and that allows early detection in order to act before the crisis. I suggest that a key to the rise and frequency in Black Swan events is due in large part to a lack of focus on detection.

This is the reason I have been focused on the continuous improvement practice of sense and response. The supply chain is in the position of canary in the coal mine and the continuous improvement practice including and focused on robust identification, or sensing, analytics to sense the coming disruption early in order to respond early. The goal should be in risk identification and then analysis of the pending impact and most importantly the likelihood of the risk manifesting itself. After the 5th ‘500 year flood’ it's time to understand and take action to focus on risk analysis and early detection!

This increased importance of sensing the disruption requires an increased focus on risk management and especially risk identification as a key area of identification in the continuous improvement process. This is a big change in focus from short term cost control to risk and disruption control. Focus on risk and disruption control will increase supply chain costs however will reduce disruption impact. This reduction in impact will in the long term reduce costs of the impact on the supply chain and the economy.

The challenge for risk management is incorporating the lessons in day-to-day supply chain management and especially the extended supply chain. The correct answer to the global disruption is not eliminating global manufacturing and the global market, the correct answer to global disruption is early detection and risk management plans to address the disruption. This means alternative supply chain capabilities for materials, manufacturing plants and delivery. These all would produce different effects on the success of reaction to the disruption and each of these require focus on risk and cost analysis to identify when it makes sense, financially and production-wise to make the change.

Unfortunately we are in an age of quick and easy answers and this does not work well in a global economy and supply chain. This requires a level of continuous effort to monitor and analyze the risks and likelihood of occurrence. This process of risk mitigation must be incorporated in the regular review and analysis process of the continuous improvement practice. The good news, in my opinion, is that this risk mitigation can be supported more accurately and quickly by embracing data analytics improvements brought about through artificial intelligence technologies. This is a baseline requirement to the effective analysis of the amounts of data available!