Next Wave For Retail

The next wave for the retail marketplace is the convergence of the internal business networks that include the supply chain partners and the external social network that includes consumers and the variety of social network sites and connections. The consumer is driving this convergence through their use of network services and connectivity as they are building their own network of connections for services and goods along with their connections. The objective for this consumer network services convergence is to connect in their own personal network both retailers and their extended supply chain partners such as transportations services and manufacturers to build a cohesive and service based network to support their own needs. This extended consumer network of services and computing capabilities, especially mobile capabilities, have given the consumer the tools to build their own social commerce network. Many service providers have recognized this and have developed new services that allow the consumer to create their own personalized shopping and purchasing capabilities. Considering the growth and value to the consumer of these social commerce network services I really do not see this trend slowing are expect quite the opposite.

There are two things bringing this together;
- The first is the computing and network capabilities,
- The second is new service providers taking advantage of these changes.

A big part of this next wave is how retailers and service providers utilize localized and personalized services in their practices. These services will provide the secret sauce that will fuel the next wave of retail. This has been growing for a while now through experimentation from both consumer experimentation and service providers. You can also see that some retailers have embraced the wave and are working towards developing the market in this direction.

I see the key aspect to the next wave as the localization of services and especially as it relates to interactions with consumers which in turn will drive the personalization that can grow as a result of the localization. Consumers have been using social networks and technologies for a while now to develop their own virtual shopping practices and even virtual shopping malls of their favorite retailers. They are using the services that are available from mobile app developers and now Google has jumped into the localization with both feet to provide consumer capabilities to search and shop based on their current location and even their destination location.

The Google developments and offerings they are providing through Maps alone will drive the localization of eCommerce to new levels. Retailers, restaurants and entertainment are offered and consumers are providing the personalized evaluations, ratings and recommendations on goods and services. Consumers are already tapping into these services in their shopping and travel decisions and retailers must recognize this and then take actions to incorporate the capabilities into their plans, services and offerings. Google is commercializing these services to expand their apps and services further into the lives of consumers and retailers and other service providers have a great reason to embrace these capabilities in their offerings to support their own sales and services.

Fortunately for retailers and service providers Google, for one, is providing the framework for localization that can be utilized by retailers and they are happy to provide this framework for others because it extends the Google brand and the data Google is able to obtain from this framework. This is an important benefit that should also push retailers into this next wave; the amount of customer data available as a result of this localization and personalization can be immensely valuable to retailers.

What are your observations and experience in this social commerce network? Are you seeing any impact or changes to consumer demands that can be related to these changes?

Tom Brouillette

Contact: Tom.brouillette@gmail.com

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Supply Chain Elasticity

There is more and more bluster focused on the dangers of the global supply chain and the only solution is to move manufacturing back to the US. This sounds great in sound bites as an option but is really not feasible and would never move forward to be executed. There are a few significant challenges to moving manufacturing back to the US starting with the fact that no one will pay the increased cost required of products manufactured in the US. The US has been addicted to the cost savings delivered by global manufacturing and it will be next to impossible to wean off that drug. There are a number of additional challenges including; materials supply chain and people and manufacturing plant capacity that have both been redesigned based on global manufacturing capacity and cost savings.

This leaves us in a state of risk for high impact disruption from global events such as pandemic that impacts entire regions and reverberates around the world. The issue is not a global supply chain, the issue is deficient risk identification and mitigation to react and address disruptions as they surface and not after the marketplace has been disrupted. The goal is to limit the disruption to limit the impact. This requires a focus on VUCA analysis and reaction to respond and address the disruption.The solution involves a global supply chain that incorporates key process and partner backup and alternative options for the supply chain including, raw materials, plants and even transport options to reduce the risk of disruption.


This is not a simple solution though because of the diverse and continuously changing supply chain! This requires a coordinated collaborative effort that combines people, process and most of all technology in ways that support the sense and response capabilities of partners and processes across the global supply chain. Luckily, we are entering a time where advances in technology, and especially collaborative technology, can be incorporated to support the velocity of change. The waves of disruption unleashed by the pandemic have started an era of extreme VUCA requiring enhanced technology capabilities to respond with the same velocity.


This is where control tower technologies come into the picture as a means to support a coordinated collaborative response to the waves of disruption. Control tower capabilities and opportunities have come into their own, and really stepped up during the pandemic to quickly show value. With AI, machine learning and process automation added to the control tower tool box you can quickly come to the point where you can quickly meet the velocity of disruption to react to changing demands and continuous waves of disruption. You must come to accept the fact that you will never eliminate disruption, the point is to build the capabilities to sense and respond before the disruption gets out of hand.


Tom Brouillette

Contact: tom.brouillette@gmail.com



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Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Digital Transformation As A Realization

 

Digital Transformation As A Realization

 

In reflection, we have been going through digital transformation since the 19th century and we have reached a point now where technology and technology tools have reached a point where we can begin to realize our dreams.  Science fiction writers have been discussing digital transformation forever and, in fact, we are now entering another significant time of digital realization because the technology has reached a point where the dreams of transformation can be realized.  These capabilities are now creating the next significant disruption that is driving new realization along with new waves of disruptions.  These new waves of disruption are being driven in large part by the dramatic increase in consumer acceptance, and embrace, of digital capabilities that has been driven by the necessary responses to the pandemic.

To paraphrase Arthur C. Clark - technology capabilities look very much like magic when initially introduced.  Consumers have embraced and are now weaving the technology ‘magic’ into their daily lives in ways and capabilities they would only have dreamed even 5 years ago!  These tools and capabilities are bringing new waves of disruption to the market as consumers and companies both experiment.  The greatest factor and force driving disruption now is not really the technology, it's the way that consumers use the technology combined with an impatience that will not wait for the market to catch up.  This is where the winners in the market will shine with a strategy of resilience and flexibility to allow them to sense and respond quickly to the continuing waves of disruption.

I see a key tool and capability that will allow companies to respond to the disruption is the tools and framework of process automation that will allow these companies to put together new processes across legacy applications to test the response.  This provides a significant value to these companies, the ability to ‘try before you buy’ the functionality in a pilot mode.  This strategy allows the company to iteratively develop and validate the process and functionality quickly without wholesale disruption in the legacy business applications.  The process automation concept, and especially the ability to automate across legacy applications, has been around for years. Now the tools and capabilities to meet the rapidly changing demands are coming together through a number of new and more robust RPA tool sets that allow organizations to react to the waves of disruption.

I would argue that legacy ERP applications do not require wholesale replacement and that the new crop of RPA tools can be utilized to modernize the legacy ERP through efficient integration with new tools. The enterprise financial requirements remain through the waves of disruptions and the legacy ERP implemented has been proven to support the financial business so this allows the enterprise to focus on response to the disruption rather than the herculean effort to replace the ERP.  These times of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) require tools that support the necessary flexibility and resilience to react effectively to the disruption and RPA tools provide the flexibility necessary to  

respond efficiently to the disruption.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition,  Here at my blog I regularly write about management and -technology trends.  To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'

Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Digital Transformation Starts With You and I

 

Digital transformation starts with your own personal commitment to digitize your personal and professional data to eliminate paper. This is important first to show your commitment to ‘walk-the-walk’ and second to help you to experience both the benefits and challenges from the digital transformation. I have personally committed to digital transformation for all of the reasons expressed for your business and market transformation, however the key reason for me is the ease of maintaining my personal records.  The first time that you quickly find an electronic receipt or a reference to a business question that was discussed in a meeting a month ago will turn you into a convert! 

Look at one example; the My Lowes customer account.  This is not a typical rewards card, or account,  because you do not receive discounts or accumulate points for rewards.  What it does provide though is a digital record of all your purchases and most importantly purchase details for future ease of reference.  A couple of examples of the benefits I've realized are elimination for a need to maintain receipts for returns and ability to purchase the same paint tint for a repair after I've disposed of any physical record and the most valuable example for me is the ability to return products without receipt.  Don’t get me wrong, rewards are an important feature of store loyalty programs, I think that these features provided by the Lowe’s program provide a pretty compelling encouragement to join.

A major challenge to any digital transformation initiative is the start-up effort to build out the framework and foundation of infrastructure to support the transformation.  Any transformation is difficult and the initial start-up must provide a reason and incentive to commit to starting the journey.  Digital transformation, whether personal or professional, is no different and requires the commitment to work through the initial challenges in order to benefit from the improved capabilities.  A personal commitment to digital transformation provides the basis and background for you to evangelize a professional business transformation.   

Fortunately for this movement, the tools currently available, along with the personal experience and acceptance of the digital age delivered by personal computing tools make the commitment a little more palatable.  This is a good thing for business digital transformation because it encourages people to question ‘why not’ and push for business digital transformation.  Every major successful transformation in my memory was driven in large part by the consumer interest and pushing business to change.  It really comes down to expanding and providing the average consumer the encouragement and incentive to embrace the change, once this initial hurdle is overcome the next step is business transformation.

We are at a crossroad now in the digital transformation journey.  Consumers are now embracing the tools and technology provided for personal use and opportunity.  I know that my own personal use of these new tools has dramatically increased as new capabilities have increased to the point where I too am pushing to extend transformation in my business activities.  The pandemic lock-down has also added to my push as I increased digital and video interactions in my work. 

The decision and action points are all converging into an increasing wave of disruption in the market.  The opportunity now is for us in business to embrace and encourage the embrace of these capabilities.  It is important now to review and revise your business strategy to support and implement a resilient and flexible framework that can respond quickly to the changes.  Do not make the mistake in thinking that you have time to respond to these changes!

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition,  Here at my blog I regularly write about management and -technology trends.  To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'

Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

RPA As Transitional Bridge To Digital Transformation

Digital transformation is a wide ranging and disruptive strategy that realistically will take years. This strategy will also define the framework that will regularly and continuously replace technology tools based on the changing demands and continuous waves of disruption in the market. You must accept and support this concept in order to be successful in developing a resilient supply chain that is capable of suppurting these transformation efforts. You must accept that there will always be strategic digital transformation initiatives that will focus on areas of greatest return in value. Maybe most importantly, this does not mean that you can afford to only focus on a small number of areas because you will be left behind in the dust of market disruptions.


This means that you must develop a method that will allow you to ‘bridge’ the gap between your current legacy technologies and new technologies that result from market and consumer disruption. One very robust method to bridge the gap is RPA because RPA technologies will allow you to automate processes through the use of technology tools that ‘bolt on’ integration and work flow management capabilities to legacy technologies. There are many examples of these capabilities that bring great value very quickly to your business that will allow you to focus on other strategic initiatives.


I think of RPA as a key tool in your continuous improvement process that will allow you to quickly and efficiently prove out your automation initiatives and strategy. We can no longer afford large initiatives of wholesale change and hope they meet the initiative objectives. We must have a way to prove out the process quickly and RPA provides the tool to support a more resilient and flexible supply chain.


I hear many people stating that RPA is ‘just’ a new and updated method of the old screen-scraper technology from the 90’s in an effort to detract from the technology and encourage the focus on what they feel a better long term capabilities. I am afraid that this focus on the ‘perfect’ will delay the ‘good’ of value delivered quickly through RPA. This strategy is a recipe for failure in these times of continuously changing demands and waves of market disruption. The best course is a focus on resilience and flexibility to sense and respond quickly to the disruption.


My feeling regarding this view is that we do not have time to only focus on the perfect because, quite frankly, perfection will never be achieved. There will always be the new market or customer demand, the new technology, the new application, the new business process that will require inclusion in your strategy and your operation. The focus on perfection will lead to a business failure to meet the demands of your customer and this failure will cause you to lose customers.


Instead, focus on speed of delivery using bridge technology that will allow you to prove the concept prior to a large investment. This is the space where RPA will shine and you can move your business forward while implementing a more long term solution. The first step then is to define your resilience strategy that identifies your weakness in resilience and then use this information to select and utilize a robust RPA tool.


Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners


Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition, Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends. To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'


Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Partner To Develop Digital Enablement Strategy

 

 

The COVID-19 pandemic disruption created an urgency in reacting and redefining the global supply chain in reaction to the consumer market upheaval. The initial pandemic disruption set off waves of related disruptions in such a short period of time that companies and organizations are overwhelmed because they cannot wait until the dust settles to address the next event. We have truly entered into a time of severe VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) across the marketplace and the supply chain is in the eye of this storm providing the key capabilities to respond. Now, perhaps more than ever, the response depends on partnerships across the extended supply chain to effectively sense and respond to the disruptions.

We must now assume that the cycles of disruption have reached a point where this time of severe VUCA will be the norm for the foreseeable future. As such, we must develop a strategy and the capabilities that help partner organizations in the extended supply chain to sense the disruption early and respond to the disruption quickly and effectively in a manner that can be leveraged for the response to the next wave of disruption. These demands require expertise in the broad market along with deep specific expertise of partners to first navigate the events and then develop a strategy to utilize the network capabilities to respond. Quick response requirements do not allow for delay hoping the disruption will disappear. We should have learned by now that it requires a response that is based on a market impact and expertise in quick identification of an appropriate response.

This is where technology and specifically a robust digital enablement / transformation strategy comes into play. The velocity of the market coupled with disrupting forces make it almost impossible for humans to sense the disruption in time to respond and limit the impact and prepare for the potential next disruption. Technology that senses the changes in the market and then identifies potential results and impact is critical to the success of a business. Considering the extended supply chain as an example, there is just too many moving parts and participants in the equation for any one partner to hope to identify and implement a response. Success requires developing a partner network to be able to respond to the waves of disruption effectively. Further success requires developing a market partner strategy that informs and enables each individual partner strategy.

This new model requires a strategy that is at once flexible and also embraces extended partnerships to enable the response to disruption in a way that supports the business strategy. Organizations must partner with an expert(s) to help develop this strategy in order to meet the time constraints. You cannot wait for the current VUCA environment to settle and return to business as usual. We need to accept the fact now that business as usual is a VUCA state that requires organizations and partners to ‘walk and chew gum at the same time’. This requires the input and direction from an expert with the vision and the experience and perhaps most importantly the network of partners and contacts that can help in developing this strategy.



Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners


Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition, Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends. To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'


Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Digital Enablement

  

We have reached a tipping point in the market relating to digital enablement and transformation that is fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery efforts. This has been a long time coming and the market was moving in this direction very slowly prior to the pandemic, in large part I believe because of market infrastructure (especially brick and mortar real estate), retailer culture (waiting for widespread acceptance to work out the bugs) and the consumers using shopping as a physical social exercise engaged in malls. Consumers quickly recognized and embraced the benefits of digital enablement in large part as a result of the necessity to adjust to the pandemic and these same consumers are now dragging retailers and the market to deliver on digital enablement.

The market is currently fragmented in both priority and direction of this enablement while at the same time struggling to react and recover from the pandemic. This disruption has produced a multi-prong disruption that has been extremely difficult for some retailers to react to and their reactions to these disruptions in many ways are spawning new disruptions. These disruptions are driven by the legacy retail market culture that has never really reconciled their practices with the increasing consumer embrace of digital enablement and the resulting market demands. In the past, large retailers have been very hesitant of the ‘bleeding edge’ technology and practices. This ingrained culture of the legacy retail leadership has now impeded their ability to respond effectively and efficiently to the mounting demands of the pandemic recovery, consumer demands and most importantly the resulting disruption and re-making of the retail market.

The change and disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed digital enablement past the tipping point though and this has now suddenly become a key to survival rather than a progressive transition process. Now that this genie is out of the bottle there is no going back. It is now a matter of great urgency to define and implement a digital enablement strategy. Retailers must now take a multi-prong approach to their digital enablement activities in order to react to the multi-prong market disruptions. They must focus on a strategy that first defines and then delivers the digital enablement while also focusing on immediate responses to the waves of disruption driven in many cases from the COVID-19 transition support requirements. This is difficult for all businesses and especially difficult for the legacy retailer that was already struggling with digital enablement before the pandemic.

There are tools that can be utilized to support the digital enablement and transition strategy that support the necessary transition from legacy retail applications and processes. This is where retailers should focus first and foremost on defining the objectives and deliverables. The next step then requires defining the ‘how’ to deliver the objectives and deliverables. The tools should be incorporated to support the two pronged delivery to enable the transition to the new objectives and requirements while also responding to the continuous disruptions that are buffeting the market.

One tool in particular can and should be utilized to support these transition efforts to digital enablement This tool can also help in responding to the significant disruption and unanticipated impact and reaction still occurring in reaction to the pandemic. I believe a key to digital enablement and disruption response is a robust RPA tool that supports automation of test data and test execution. It is very common to hear testing horror stories regarding costs, labor and schedule requirements in the range of 40% of the implementation. These challenges are a huge impediment to the ability to respond and recover from disruptions and critical business improvements concurrently. RPA can deliver dramatic testing automation improvements in both data generation and test scenario execution that will reduce time and effort to deliver.

RPA is by no means a ‘silver bullet’ solution to your business demands. RPA does however provide a significant tool that can enhance and enable current process improvements and optimization as a first step to your digital enablement strategy. The first step now is to develop your RPA strategy based on demands and opportunities - this will guide you through your second step which is tool implementation. One more important point to take into account, is the benefits of working with an experienced partner to help and guide you in your strategy development and tool selection process to quickly recover costs.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition, Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends. To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'
Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

There Is No Normal

 

I am concerned about what I see as a strong tendency to return to the status quo rather than learn, and plan, for change as a reaction to the disruption cycles, or waves, that we are currently experiencing.  This is a tendency that I see across the US culture to return to normal when there really is no normal and I would say the normal is actually the continuous cycles of change we have experienced through history..  Its not a new normal, there really is no normal!  

In fact, in looking back you can see that businesses and governments and cultures have struggled to recognize this reality as a requirement move forward and be successful.  In fact, the business world cannot afford to ignore the waves of disruption and address the disruption by attempting to return to a perceived normal.  Maybe that is the point - there is no normal and the sooner we accept this reality, the sooner we can actually move forward and create a process that imagines risk to prepare for the disruption.

We must focus not on implementation and execution of a process that enables the business  reaction and response to continuous waves of disruption.  This process must enable moving from a single stream focus to a multi-stream focus and most importantly the process must be practiced until it becomes second nature.  This is developing a new muscle that is critical to the success of business and the market.  It seems that the majority of people and businesses are so set on returning the pre-pandemic 'normal' that they are overlooking reality and the need to develop methods that can sense and respond.  The telling point, or proof, of this observation is the seemingly never-ending series of black swan events that buffet the global market in waves.  If black swan events occur on a regular basis it means they are not by very definition black swan events.  These are rather the 'new normal' that we must first accept and then embrace and incorporate into our world vision.  

This is difficult, human nature does not want to change and that is the continuous and compelling theme for a significant number of people and by extension businesses and the market as a whole.  This is a struggle for many and our challenge is to provide the road map to sense and respond to the waves of disruption.  I think that we are reaching the point of actually creating a new series of disruptions as a result of not accepting the change and attempting to return to the previous comfort level.

This new process requires a robust risk management process that defines a business continuity program.  The goal of the risk management process is to imagine disruption and the potential for description and then determine how to respond to the disruption.  This is where multi-stream definitions and planning comes into play because as we continuously see demonstrated in real life; disruption impact is a reaction to multiple pressures and events combined to force a reaction.  This requires a risk management and business continuity program that is robust enough to first identify the potential and second identify responses to the waves of disruption that are combined based on the waves of disruption.  

A key issue and single greatest factor to the COVID-19 disruption is not the actual physical and structural disruptions but the lack of imagination and forsight to first imagine the potential and second to imagine a response.  We see this over and over - the so-called black swan even that surprises everyone.  As an example, whether you subscribe to climate change you should be developing response to the weather based disruptions we are experiencing.  

Here is the key challenge; you cannot hope to define all possible risks and define reactions for all posible impacts.  This is where the risk management process comes into play, you must define the potential of the risks and then based on the risk define the potential reaction.  Imagination of the possible allows reaction and response to the reality.  

How can you implement a robust risk mitigation program?

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition,  Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends.  To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'

Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Benefits From COVID-19 Disruption In The Supply Chain

With each significant disruption in the supply chain and in the global market our supply chain practice and procedures must perform a lessons learned exercise to identify the areas of successful response and areas for improvement. I know it sounds counterintuitive to call out benefits however every event should be evaluated to identify areas of success and improvement. There have been areas of success in the supply chain, especially in the way that the entire supply chain reacted to the disruptions in both product types and manufacturing. There are also many areas for improvement and most importantly this pandemic has identified significant weak areas in the global supply chain. The challenge now is to look back to evaluate the disruptions to determine improvements to incorporate in both sensing and responding to the disruption.

First let me call out that I believe the disruptions in the global supply chain are the result of poor risk analysis and business continuity responses to disruption. The overarching answer is not moving the supply to local manufacturing but to implement improvements in the process and procedures for sense and response to disruption. We know that the impact of a pandemic can and should be defined and practiced, while we can’t tell the exact nature of a pandemic, we can plan for a pandemic response. We also know that the global supply chain has grown and developed as a result of the global market demands on the supply and there is no easy answer to the challenge, especially moving manufacturing locally!

We have learned some key findings from this regarding the importance of the response to the disruption that could reduce the impact in the future. These are the factors that must be documented and a process implemented to review the market conditions on a regular basis. I believe that we have let the supply chain become fragile and brittle as a result of a focus on cost only. One learning or benefit from the experience is the need to plan for disruption of many types and combinations to improve supply chain resiliency. There are two factors that improve the resiliency of the supply chain;

Risk and response analysis is critical to the successful response to any disruption. This is a complex exercise because it requires imagination to identify the potential risk and then another type of imagination to define the response to the disruption. This is a major area of improvement.

Supply chain partner collaboration is another critical success factor to the response to any disruption. We have seen improvements in supply chain partner collaboration recently, however it has not been nearly fast enough, nor far enough. The supply chain is just that a chain of links from partner to partner that must work together to successfully support the market. The supply chain activities have met the challenge of the global market, however, the partners have refrained from extending and growing the collaboration that is necessary to react to significant disruption.

The future success of the global supply chain is based on the ability to quickly sense and respond to disruption, and more importantly multiple combinations of disruption. This is where process automation and analytics come into play. This is also the same areas showing dramatic increases in interest and expanded implementation. We must be careful in our response and strategic planning that we focus on flexibility and resilience when developing our strategic plan and reactions to the multiple disruptions. We have the process in place for the process automation and this has become critical to the response to the disruption. We must now develop the analytics to allow us to sense the disruption before significant impact and define the potential responses to any disruption. The third point that cannot be shorted is expanding collaborative practices across the extended global supply chain to improve response and reaction time to the disruption.

What steps have you taken to evaluate your response to the pandemic and identify areas of improvement?

Tom Brouillette
Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition, Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends. To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'


Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Risk Scenario Analysis

Risk scenario analysis requires imagination and most importantly collaborative brainstorming in order to identify all risks, even and especially risks that today seem outlandish. As an example, I would have never considered Amazon stopping non-essential product shipments but this is exactly what was enacted as a response to this pandemic. One of the consequences of this action has been a significant impact on small businesses that utilize Amazon for their warehouse and order filling support. This in-tern impacted the success of a great deal of small businesses that were dependant on the Amazon fulfillment services which impacted the livelihood of many employees along with the success of the small business. This then fed into the overall economic impact from the pandemic. This is a great example of the relationships and overall impact of seemingly unrelated decisions on a wide range of people and businesses.

The above example is the key reason why it is so important to perform robust risk scenario analysis. In the example above the impacted businesses now must evaluate the risk of the fulfillment disruption and how they can react to this disruption to support their business. Business must develop a strategic risk management process that views scenarios for any and all risk to the business. Starting in the beginning of this yea the waves of disruption experienced to date have shown that you cannot eliminate a risk because it will never happen. We have gone through a series of disruptions that previously were simply unimaginable as a real risk and so there were no response strategies developed.

The first step is to identify and fully document the risk scenario. This means that the risk scenario must not only identify the potential risk, it must also identify the potential impact to the market and also the business. The definition of the risk is not complete though until you have identified and documented how to sense the risk so that you can execute your planned response. This means that you should identify and document 'outlandish' risks as well as generally accepted risks. The outlandish risk may never materialize however it is important to call out the scenario so that you can take steps to minimize the potential as well as prepare for the realization of the risk.

This is an important point - one of the objectives of the strategic risk analysis and a key outcome are steps that can be taken that will minimize the potential for the risk. This is a concept that needs to become a focus of every risk mitigation strategy because the best way to react to a risk is to eliminate the cause of the risk. Simply defining the risk and the potential impact to the market in general and your business specifically will help to identify how to sense the risk. This exercise of risk identification and early recognition will provide the framework to define the steps necessary to eliminate the risk from occurring.

Risk scenario analysis and mitigation has always been an important aspect of project planning and management. We must institute this same practice now in the supply chain management and business continuity process. As a result of the rate and impact of disruption hitting the market and businesses we must recognize that risk analysis can no longer be viewed as an inward facing exercise. As a result of the disruptions hitting this year we must finally recognize that business continuity must be and outward facing strategy that recognizes early the factors developing of the disruption and takes steps to mitigate and avert major impact.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Strategic Risk Management To Counter VUCA

Hope For The Best And Plan For The Worst should be a consistent and shared mantra for all businesses as a means to focus on strategic risk management. The importance of this has increased to the highest level as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the activities to both recover and prepare for the next disruption. This requires a significant investment in strategic risk mitigation definition and development and must include partner risk management in the scenario development and risk mitigation strategy. This includes all partners and integrations in the extended supply chain. The weakest link in the supply chain will continuously change depending on the type of disruption and your strategic risk scenarios must be developed to define a response for all scenarios.

One critical activity, or requirement, is implementing a regular risk scenario review process that evaluates the likelihood of scenarios and most importantly, new scenarios. As we have seen from the many disruptions experienced so far this year risk scenarios and potential changes continuously with new risks rising and other risks declining and disappearing. You will never in a million years be able to identify all risks, and the point is that a regular review process provides the means to review so that you can add and remove scenarios as necessary.

The next activity is developing and implementing the appropriate data analytics capabilities that will support the ability to sense the reactions to disruptions and most importantly, the reaction to combinations of disruptions. The risk scenarios must identify the reactions to combinations of disruptions and then you must have a means to measure the responses. This is where data analytics comes into play, along with a healthy helping of imagination. Different disruptions and combinations of disruptions will cause different reactions in the supply chain and these reactions must be identified quickly in order to determine the appropriate response. The risk scenario identification and evaluation is important but it is based on assumptions and personal viewpoints of the team that developed the scenarios. Data analytics brings the facts to the table to help to determine the appropriate response.

The glue that connects these processes and activities is imagination. Risk scenarios require imagination to create, risk response exercises require imagination to develop, data analytics requires imagination to develop the queries and identify the appropriate data and source to identify the reaction to the disruption and then to validate the effectiveness of the response. As you can imagine, this is not a ‘once-and-done’ exercise. This requires continuous review and evaluation in order to grow and evolve with the market and the supply chain. Each disruption and reaction to the disruption creates a new reality stream that changes scenarios and potential for disruption and it is important to continuously evaluate and develop new scenarios.

Data analytics is a very nebulous practice that requires continuous experimentation and evaluation to validate assumptions. The data analytics initially produces the outcome reaction to disruption and combinations. This is only the start, however, because after identification of the outcome you must then try to trace back the results through the responses and combination of responses if you want to tie them back to a particular disruption. I’m not sure that it is critical to tie everything back to a specific disruption though. The point of this whole exercise is to identify a reaction to mitigate the specific business disruption that has occurred and this should be the initial focus. After the mitigation exercise you will need to go back and evaluate the actions that resulted in the disruption on another day.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

COVID-19 Crashed Into The Economy

Covid-19 crashed into the economy causing supply and demand side disruption that continues to ripple through the supply chain impacting planning and forecasting in addition to transportation, storage and manufacturing disruption. This disruption requires robust data analytics to sense and respond to the dynamic changes that ripple through the economy. The challenge and first priority is developing the capabilities based on a robust data analytics business intelligence model to sense and respond early to risk so that the impact of the continuously changing disruption. This challenge requires a great deal of imagination and focus in order to develop the tools and framework that is both robust and flexible to respond to the disruption.

This is not a single event, it is a significant event in a series of events that will continue to impact the economy and as a result the extended supply chain into the future. This fundamentally changes your business continuity planning requirements to include a larger number of scenarios and combinations of scenarios in order to manage the risk. In addition to the expansion of risk scenarios this also requires more frequent reviews and most importantly - data analytics to sense the disruption early in the life cycle. This combination of additional and improved strategic business risk scenario evaluation and improved analytics to sense the disruption are key to successful response to limit the impact of the disruption.

We have reached the point now in the global market where these capabilities are critical not to the success of your organization but they are now a critical factor in the survival of your organization! The current situation is a perfect example of how risk is driven by multiple events to disrupt. In the last year we have experienced severe climate related events such as wildfires, hurricanes and tornadoes that impact the market and product demands Then add to this the US / China trade war that initiated the manufacturing shift from China to other Asia Pacific countries. Then before the trade war settled the pandemic crashed into the market first impacting manufacturing and flowing through a shut down of the world economy.

All of these factors come together for a 500 year disruption that must be resolved. We must reset our scope and risk management though to plan for the 500 year disruption continuously. In a global market there are so many factors that influence change and disruption along with the impact of the disruption. These factors change with the season and the relationship and impact of the combination of factors require a focused risk scenario strategy in order to sense the factor early so that the response can be identified to limit the disruption.

It is no longer acceptable to react to the disruption after the fact. The disruptions are coming too quickly and more importantly the disruption builds on previous factors and disruption to create new impacts. Your organization will not be able to survive unless you implement a risk management sense and response strategy that is frequently reviewed and revised for new scenarios and responses. The good news is that the tools are available now to support this initiative and only require the focus and priority to develop and monitor the strategy.

Supply Chain Strategy For COVID-19 VUCA

While the COVID-19 pandemic is certainly the most significant disruption that the world is facing, it is by no means the only disruption the world and especially the supply chain is facing.  In fact, the level of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) has increased over the last 5 - 8 years through a series of natural disasters, political unrest and most recently of course the pandemic.  What we must learn is not how to address specific disruption events, we must instead develop a strategic plan that identifies potential disruption events that may or may not occur and then identify potential responses that can be selected singly or grouped to respond to the disruption.  

This VUCA response strategy is simply a more robust business continuity plan.  This is dramatically over-simplified, I understand, however what I am focused on is the definition of continuity which has been an established practice for a long time.  This VUCA response strategy requires a more robust process that defines every type of response for every type of disruption that would then be reviewed on a regular basis to validate and update.  This enhanced response strategy must be incorporated as part of the regular continuous improvement process to analyze not only potential process improvement but also potential disruption.  The risk analysis must become part of the regular process for the business and especially the supply chain to allow for a well thought out response that will reduce the impact of the disruption.

I know that many think - how can you evaluate potential risk of a disruption such as a pandemic?  The evaluation is not based on any specific type of risk, it is based on potential impact if and when any service, supplier (especially raw materials or parts suppliers in manufacturing), transportation partner or customer is suddenly shut down.  Another very critical aspect to the risk analysis is the impact sudden changes in package quantity when specific areas of demand are impacted.  For instance, when institutional demand dried up as a result fo COVID-19 and dairy farmers were forced to discard milk.  The risk analysis and continuity planning must focus on the areas of impact and not the impact event in order to be effective and support the needs of your business. 

The continuity analysis and planning must be planned and executed as a continuous process that is reviewed on a quarterly basis and the events that can impact the business must then be reviewed to confirm that the potential impacts are still valid and also review and the response is still valid and most importantly, the triggering events analysis and review process is still valid.  With the increase in business threatening disruptions it is critical to get ahead of the events as much as possible so that the reaction to the event can be triggered in a time frame that will control and limit the impact of the disruption.  The best time to plan for the response to a disruption is before the disruption occurs!

We have entered into a time of VUCA that will continue to impact professional practices and capabilities and then this will carry over into the personal side as well.  Everything is connected and there is a ripple effect across industries that must be anticipated.  It is no longer acceptable to say - who would have expected this type of disruption?  We all must be prepared for disruption of any kind that may occur and then have a response planned and ready to implement.

COVID-19 Disruption Demands Supply Chain Elasticity

The time to react to an extreme disruption such as the COVID-19 pandemic is not when the pandemic is imminent, or in the midst of the pandemic. The time to react is before the pandemic, or the disruption event, to prepare reactions based on the potential. This enables your organization to identify and evaluate potential reactions prior to the event and this dramatically reduces reaction and also ensures appropriate and effective reaction. Reaction to a disruption requires elasticity in the process and the organization in order to bend and stretch rather than break. Reaction to disruption also requires the ability to sense the disruption in time to react.

Recently there is a great deal of bluster focused on the dangers of the global supply chain that suggests the only way to eliminate the risk is to move manufacturing back to the US. This sounds great in a sound bite but is really not feasible and would never move forward. There are a few significant challenges to moving manufacturing back to the US starting with the challenge of an increased cost resulting from

products manufactured in the US. The US has been addicted to the cost savings delivered by global manufacturing and it will be next to impossible to wean off that drug. The other challenge is the people and manufacturing capacity that would be required to meet the consumer demand.

The appropriate solution involves a flexible and nimble global supply chain that incorporates backup and alternative options for both raw materials, manufacturing plants and even transport options to reduce the risk of disruption. The issue is not a global supply chain, the issue is the deficient risk identification and mitigation to react and address disruption. This requires a focus on analysis and reaction to respond and resolve the disruption. The supply chain must be able to react to difficult situations and conditions best described as VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) that requires the continuous ability to sense and react to disruption as it materializes.

As an industry we have implemented the process and the tools to respond to disruptions to ensure business continuity and now the use of these tools must be extended in order to react to the VUCA earlier in order to limit the business disruption. The challenge for the industry is the early planning and preparation for VUCA events so the reaction can be predetermined and practiced so the disruption can be limited. This requires robust tools and capabilities to sense the disruption earlier to allow time to implement the business continuity procedures.

The business continuity procedures must be predefined and practiced regularly so that they can be executed quickly and efficiently in response when the disruption is identified. This is standard operating procedures for businesses in the supply chain. One of the new factors to this continuing challenge is the types of disruption and the ‘surprise’ of the disruption. I think sensing and responding to VUCA must be the key starting point to business continuity. The definition of business disruption must be expanded to focus on VUCA and the analytics must be improved. The business continuity is not all or nothing and should be viewed as modules that should be engaged depending on the situation.

We must accept the fact that we have entered a time of extreme disruption and must focus on the ability to sense the disruption and quickly implement the response to the disruption. This means the business continuity procedures must be extended to be utilized in response more efficiently to the disruption. The first step though is focus on sensing the disruption! This is where tools and technology will play a key role, including advanced analytics and artificial intelligence and even process automation.

Business Continuity In Extreme Disruption

The coronavirus pandemic is another Black Swan event that highlights the importance of a robust and flexible business continuity plan that utilizes big data analytics technology and artificial intelligence to support a reactive and flexible framework rather than a structured process of recovery. We see a discontinuous river of disruptive events that are impacting the supply chain along with businesses and customers and the reactions to these events must be swift in order to limit the impact. The world will not slow down and in fact will only speed up in the types of disruptive events that must be addressed in creative and flexible ways.

The seemingly continuous stream of Black Swan events speaks to the need to sense and respond to these events to limit or even eliminate the impact. Early detection and response to the pending event dramatically reduces the impact of the event and this should be the goal going forward! It makes no sense at all to develop a quick response system that leaps into action when the impact is upon us. This goal of early detection requires a focus on risk analysis and that allows early detection in order to act before the crisis. I suggest that a key to the rise and frequency in Black Swan events is due in large part to a lack of focus on detection.

This is the reason I have been focused on the continuous improvement practice of sense and response. The supply chain is in the position of canary in the coal mine and the continuous improvement practice including and focused on robust identification, or sensing, analytics to sense the coming disruption early in order to respond early. The goal should be in risk identification and then analysis of the pending impact and most importantly the likelihood of the risk manifesting itself. After the 5th ‘500 year flood’ it's time to understand and take action to focus on risk analysis and early detection!

This increased importance of sensing the disruption requires an increased focus on risk management and especially risk identification as a key area of identification in the continuous improvement process. This is a big change in focus from short term cost control to risk and disruption control. Focus on risk and disruption control will increase supply chain costs however will reduce disruption impact. This reduction in impact will in the long term reduce costs of the impact on the supply chain and the economy.

The challenge for risk management is incorporating the lessons in day-to-day supply chain management and especially the extended supply chain. The correct answer to the global disruption is not eliminating global manufacturing and the global market, the correct answer to global disruption is early detection and risk management plans to address the disruption. This means alternative supply chain capabilities for materials, manufacturing plants and delivery. These all would produce different effects on the success of reaction to the disruption and each of these require focus on risk and cost analysis to identify when it makes sense, financially and production-wise to make the change.

Unfortunately we are in an age of quick and easy answers and this does not work well in a global economy and supply chain. This requires a level of continuous effort to monitor and analyze the risks and likelihood of occurrence. This process of risk mitigation must be incorporated in the regular review and analysis process of the continuous improvement practice. The good news, in my opinion, is that this risk mitigation can be supported more accurately and quickly by embracing data analytics improvements brought about through artificial intelligence technologies. This is a baseline requirement to the effective analysis of the amounts of data available!

Disruptive Forces In The Supply Chain

There are so many factors driving transformation and disruption in the supply chain that we have moved from a model of discontinuous change to a model of discontinuous disruption.

The disruptions in the supply chain now are driven by the developments and incorporation of new capabilities that are more and more identified and developed utilizing the information and capabilities delivered by data analytics and artificial intelligence technologies. The pieces of technologies are being brought together through the immense amount of data and abilities to fully utilize the data that themselves have been made possible by technology. In the same way that technologies have allowed consumers to mold their professional interactions to meet their lifestyle needs, technology is also supporting the supply chain and extended partners to meet the supply chain business interaction and operational needs.

In a very real way consumers are driving the disruption through their embrace of technology combined with increased network capabilities that are blending their interactions across every corner of their professional interactions. Supply chain leaders and partners have embraced growth in data analytics that is made possible by technology improvements in data storage, network improvements to move the data and then most importantly the computing power improvements to drive the data analytics capabilities to analyze the data to understand and define direction and capabilities required to improve the supply chain to meet the demands. The supply chain supports the consumer demands across all industries and the computing power along with the network capabilities available to every individual across the supply chain is driving the discontinuous disruption.

The pieces of discontinuous disruption have been developed and also been growing in their use in the supply chain starting with the growth of the Internet of Things technologies and tools and naturally expanding in the supply chain arena into automation of processes and then add to this the robotic movement that is growing now, especially in the third party logistics industry and you can see that these pieces required a technology and capability to coordinate and connect the dots. All of these technologies are collecting immense amounts of data for the supply chain to utilize to improve the services and increase their capabilities without necessarily increasing the long term costs.

Supply chain leaders are using these technologies and really driven by their own imagination and questioning ‘why not’ to drive this growth and expansion of supply chain processes and operational improvements and most importantly efficiencies. These technologies are disrupting through the implementation and growth of automated operational and process improvements that are driving efficiencies into the supply chain. The true disruption innovation in the supply chain is the imagination that has been released through the implementation of these technologies that are driven in large part by the improvements in analytics and computing power to release and encourage this imaginative approach to disruption.

This is the amazing thing in my opinion, that the consumer is at the center driving the disruption into the supply chain industry based on their demonstrated imagination and use of technologies to put together their own solutions. These strong outside influences are driving the basic need for the supply chain to understand and maintain the velocity of disruption in processes operations and especially functionality in order to meet the consumer and market demands. Most importantly, though is the continuous improvement process and data analytics capabilities that must be implemented to allow the supply chain to sense and respond to the disruption that is now impacting the supply chain marketplace.

Supply Chain Reshaped By COVID-19 Disruption

There is no question that the Coronavirus has disrupted the world and in the face of all this disruption, the supply chain is being reshaped in reaction to the waves of disruption started by this pandemic. It is safe to say that the world social and economic order has been turned upside down during this time in reaction to the speed and the range of disruption driven by this virus. There has been no area left untouched at this point and the focus is on reaction and adjustments in reaction to the disruption. This requires more than ever extreme flexibility and robust collaboration and communication to sense and respond to the disruption.

I firmly believe that one of the key strengths developed over the years on the extended supply chain is the ability to sense and respond to disruption in a manner that efficiently identifies disrupting factors and resolves through a robust process of continuous improvement. The baseline tools, practices and procedures are in place to respond to the disruption and these have really been the foundation framework that has helped the supply chain to respond and continue to support the market.

The question now is - What process and procedures should be incorporated to allow the extended supply chain to support the multi-faceted waves of disruption that will continue?


These are some key factors that will support the velocity and impact of disruption:

First and foremost is robust, open and holistic collaboration practices. This is key to the ‘sense’ process in sense and response to the disruptions. This requires open sharing of information collected from all quarters in order to better understand relationships and impact of the disruption. Without the collaborative practices the response portion of sense and respond runs a great risk of reaction to the wrong cause of the disruption.

Data collection and analysis provides the information and identifies the relationships that are driving the disruption. There is really nothing new to the level of importance of data in the ability to first sense the disruption and then determine the cause and identify a reaction to the disruption.

Define and implement actions and change based on the data analysis in response to the disruption. One key to the implementation of change is the realization and acceptance that there is no silver bullet that will address the disruption. The disruption is fluid and the changes and reaction must be fluid as well!

The reaction in the system to the change must be reviewed and validated to confirm the response to the change provided a positive impact. This is starting the process over again.

Finally, the most important factor now is speed of reaction! This means multithreading reactions and actions with the analysis of the data. There are two key tool in this time to analyze reactions; the use of Artificial Intelligence and robust collaborative practices.

The guiding factor in this time of disruption must be ‘Don’t Panic and Respond to Data’! This will be the most difficult and greatest time of disruption and when you add the cultural and health disruption to this business disruption the impact can initially seem overwhelming. In order to overcome this feeling we must identify a program that includes a process of actions to address the disruption. We should be using the experience gained over the recent years driven by business and consumer disruption in order to meet the demands of the current disruption.

Robotic Process Automation And You

Robotic process automation is a capability segment that is growing quickly in large part because of the speed in which it can be delivered with limited risk. This is a natural progression to the growing autonomous automation capabilities including robotics. This next logical step of business process improvements combines business process analysis and improvements with software robots identified and driven by artificial intelligence tools and workers. Combine the potential benefits with the limited risk and the robotic process automation provides a very alluring opportunity to quickly add benefits and efficiencies to processes in the operation.



The challenge in the operation is continuous pressure on improvements in efficiencies; to do more work with less human interaction. Unfortunately for the operation, and logistics in the supply chain, robotic implementation can be very disruptive because of the dramatic change to the operation. This is where robotic process automation can bring value to automate the existing process without dramatic disruption. This will provide the opportunity to improve efficiencies while the disruptive projects can be implemented. In fact, I would suggest that robotic process automation be viewed as the first step in a robotic strategy because it provides the first step to proving the automation.



Within the operation the greatest disruption is brought about by the dramatic and sudden change that is demonstrated by physical robotic implementation in the warehouse operations. Robotics not only disrupt the operation and the process and flow of people and operations, it also disrupts the physical layout of the warehouse resulting from the robotics implementation. While there have been dramatic increases in efficiencies, volume and accuracy this must be tempered, initially at least, with the disruption in the warehouse. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a strong advocate of automation to improve the operation, I am only saying you must go into this with eyes wide open to understand and plan for the holistic impact to the operations.



Robotic process automation allows for a trial at increased automation to improve the efficiencies of the operation without dramatic change. This is a benefit not only to the operation, it is also a benefits strategic planning by providing a point of validation for the automation. This is a critical benefit because of the investment required for increased automation with autonomous robotics. The resulting increased efficiencies delivered by robotic process automation allow for a refocus by the operation to more complicated processes that may be more difficult to automate or require autonomous robotic automation.



Automation is a multi-faceted opportunity for improvement and must be viewed as such in strategic planning and strategic initiatives. The organization and operation especially must evaluate options based on the process and automation opportunity, all processes will not achieve improvement from the same automation tool. This is why it is so important to implement a robust and forward thinking strategic planning process to help identify the improvements.



Automation is another flavor of process evaluation and improvement that brings a new set of tools to the toolbox. It must be remembered that these tools excel in different scenarios and situations and the strategic planning process must be a focus to incorporate these new tools as appropriate. This incorporation of new tools is critical to the long term success of an organization and especially now considering the velocity of disruption. There is no time to wait and see how others use the tools. The key to success is embracing a strategic process that experiments and looks toward incremental change to stay ahead of disruption. Disruption is the tipping point of incremental change, unfortunately it is tool late to react to disruption and best case scenario is creating your own disruption.

Generation AI Influence On The Market

Artificial Intelligence has greatly impacted the supply chain and ‘you ain’t seen nothin yet’ as they say. The market disruption is driven by the combination of consumer embrace of technology and the growing embrace from technology savvy, older generations in the market and the workforce. These converging influences are driving the supply chain now to incorporate these same new technologies in combination with artificial intelligence in order to sense and respond to the disruption. Disruption in the market will only increase because of technology capability improvements and the imagination of the consumer. This imagination and experimentation will increase the disruption as the new generations increase their involvement in the market.

We are seeing now a dramatic increase in market participation by millennials and gen-x and in turn the market must be prepared to incorporate their reactions and demands. As for sensing the demands, there is so much information available now in the market based on the online habits that there is really no way to sift through this vast amount of data to succeed in reacting and meeting the demands without Artificial Intelligence. We are seeing now the results of poor the poor sense and respond capabilities in the marketplace with legacy brick and mortar retailers struggling with the disruption and lurching from one attempt to react to another. The market itself and the consumers have moved on before these retailers can react. This is essentially a real time demonstration of the disruption in action and this will only increase in velocity.

The key disrupting factor now is mobile technology and how the younger generations are using this technology to support their lifestyle demands. This disruption has increased in velocity as the concepts are proven by early adopters and then spread through other consumer groups. Based on the embrace of mobile technology, what was once a strategic weapon is now almost a strategic albatross, I’m speaking of the number of brick and mortar stores. This embrace of mobile technology requires an equal embrace of the omni channel shopping experience by the large retailers. The current major disruption rolling through the retail market is related to the demands of consumers for a true omni channel experience. The retailers struggling are the larger retailers that have been slow to invest in technology to develop the experience.

Now we are seeing the results of this shopping disruption, especially in the large department store sector, where the early adapters are succeeding and the late adaptors are struggling! The struggling retailers are seeing the results of previous strategic practices to hold off on investment until the market settles and the winning technology has been selected by the market. As a result of the velocity of change in technology and use of the technology the winning technology is not selected by the market, instead the technology is embraced and usage of the technology modified and enhanced based on the users of the technology.

I see that the most significant disrupting factor in the market now is not related to technology use by the marketplace but related to the technology use by consumers within the market. Consumers have now turned the table on the market by developing methods that must be adopted by the market and retailers rather than the market pushing capabilities to the consumer. This is really where consumers are driving the market and this is also the most significant opportunity for a retailer such as Amazon or now Wal Mart to really reshape the relationship with the consumer and in doing this reshaping the market itself.