Artificial Intelligence Improving Logistics

Over the last few years there has been a great deal of interest and development in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential to improve the supply chain and logistics. There is an immense amount of data available across the supply chain from a combination of Internet of Things (IoT) devices connected directly to supply chain partners and then also a great deal information from your partners across the supply chain network. In addition to the data produced internally through process actions and functionality, there is now an immense amount of data available from external customers to the supply chain network via direct interaction within the extended network through partner portals and direct interactions and integration with supply chain external customers. The Internet and online interactions from eCommerce (B2B and B2C) provide a great deal of this data and supply chain partners would be foolish not to use this data to improve their logistics capabilities.

The challenge for the supply chain network has been two-fold;

• How to utilize the data
• What data to collect for both analysis and use

Artificial intelligence starts with the collection of data for analysis and this is an important starting point. There is no way early on in the collection of data to determine what will be important. This is because the analysis must be performed first to understand the potential use and value of the collected data. The intelligence part of the analysis also requires a great deal of information in order to validate the hypothesis and then to determine direction based on this intelligence. Starting with the data you can see why it is so important to collect everything because the intelligence part of the equation will generally require additional data from the same periods to confirm and validate direction.

It is important to collect all data then because you cannot tell what may be important for the analysis when determining direction. The good news here though is that storage is cheap and the technology to analyze vast amounts of data has been improved through game-changing improvements in technology. These two points have probably done more for the growth and development of artificial intelligence than any other developments over the last few years. These improvements in technology allow the supply chain to refine and redirect logistics activities and practices based on facts and data rather than hunches and hopes. Combine these two technologies with the growth of the Internet of Things capabilities and related technologies and the potential for improvements is almost overwhelming.

These increased capabilities bring improvements and opportunities in automation as well, including warehouse location and slotting, along with drones and robotics to improve efficiencies and especially accuracy while reducing costs. These are not the only areas of improvement than can be achieved through artificial intelligence. There will be improvements in volumes, inbound and outbound forecasts for instance, that will bring dramatic change to the supply chain as manufacturers and transportation providers revise their processes to incorporate the analytics into their plans and procedures. The warehouse operation though will also be dramatically impacted as artificial intelligence brings analytics to the equation that allows the operation to understand and immediately adjust labor forecasts to changes in the operation during the date based on near real time events. Artificial intelligence is just another factor bringing transformation to the supply chain and the supply chain must start with a baseline of continuous improvements in the flexibility and continuous change practices in order to meet the transformations.

Tom Brouillette
Contact: tom.brouillette.@gmail.com

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Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers.

Disruption Without Interuption

  

Disruption Without Interruption should be the mantra for all business strategies because it describes perfectly the objective for all strategies. What we are seeing in the business world is a period of continuous waves of disruption that I believe have been triggered by the COVID-19 recovery demands and requirements. The world is not slowing down and disruption begets disruption which then begets more disruption. While the tipping point may have been the COVID-19 pandemic, the difficulty in responding has been related to the waves of disruption triggered by continually developing events and even disasters. These are not black swan events, instead we seem to have entered into a black swan time period or era.

Based on the above, I believe the business response must focus on a strategy that is informed and guided by a robust Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program. This strategy and program is based on a solid foundational process of continuous improvement practices that have been proven and reinforced over time that incorporates a robust risk management process. It is important to develop a program to manage and maintain the strategy through quickly changing demands and new disruptions that is both flexible and focused on moving forward. This can only be done by understanding the demands and cause and impact of the current disruption and most importantly the potential for pending future disruption. This Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program is the foundation that supports your business success through these turbulent times.

Dirruptions and competition are probably two of the key influencers for every business. The interesting thing is that competitors and market competition plays the greater role in business strategy. Looking back over the last nine months shows that disruptions in business, whether supply, demand, or the ability to recover from disruption through an efficient supply chain produced a tremendous impact on business, the market and consumers. It is very clear that a Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program is an extremely important, if not critical, aspect to any business continuity planning. What's more, it is also very clear that the cycle of disruption is quickening rather than slowing and the importance of these capabilities is critical to the survival of any business in this environment. I also believe that the importance of taking the long term view and developing a plan and process for sensing and then responding to these disruptions is also of the highest importance especially to the long term success of the business.

In order to manage disruption and implement, and most importantly maintain, Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program and strategy it is important to focus. Focus is required for all strategic initiatives and the challenge is overcoming the day-to-day interruptions, disruptions and challenges that seem to continually interrupt your focus and energy. The challenge it seems is to define a process or incorporate tools that allow you to reduce the need to focus on these interruptions and the perfect tool for this challenge is robotic process automation.

There are many tools, expertise and capabilities available now that can help in developing a robust Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program to help your business, and the market, to react to disruptions and eliminate or reduce the resulting interruption and impact. Artificial Intelligence and Automation, such as process automation and RPA, are important tools to first sense and then respond to disruption. Other factors in developing a robust program frankly is imagination and consistency in applying imagination. This practice is produced through a commitment and encouragement from leadership that would come from elevating the role to a 'C' level responsibility. I also think audit controls and procedures must be modified to place increased importance on a Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program to limit the impact of the business.

RPA would allow the monitoring and even automated response to many of the daily interruptions and challenges and this would allow leadership to maintain a greater focus on the higher value objectives of your Dynamic Risk Sense and Respond program. In addition benefits this demonstrates:

1. Commitment to RPA by implementing daily leadership tasks
2. First hand leadership experience demonstrating RPA allows automation of routine tasks to allow focus on value add tasks
3. Roles change to focus on higher value activities rather than job elimination

This ability to automate the routine to allow focus on high value activities may be one of the most significant benefits of RPA from a business and market perspective. I am beginning to think that one of the best and most efficient ways to demonstrate value is to increase the focus on senior leadership implementation. We see hundreds of examples and discussions on the benefit of automating repetitive processes and tasks from an operational and customer support perspective and I suggest adding senior leadership tasks and activities to this list.

The challenge to the program is complacency! Business must fight complacency and the tendency to slowly allow these types of programs to whither.


Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners


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Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

There Is No Normal

 

I am concerned about what I see as a strong tendency to return to the status quo rather than learn, and plan, for change as a reaction to the disruption cycles, or waves, that we are currently experiencing.  This is a tendency that I see across the US culture to return to normal when there really is no normal and I would say the normal is actually the continuous cycles of change we have experienced through history..  Its not a new normal, there really is no normal!  

In fact, in looking back you can see that businesses and governments and cultures have struggled to recognize this reality as a requirement move forward and be successful.  In fact, the business world cannot afford to ignore the waves of disruption and address the disruption by attempting to return to a perceived normal.  Maybe that is the point - there is no normal and the sooner we accept this reality, the sooner we can actually move forward and create a process that imagines risk to prepare for the disruption.

We must focus not on implementation and execution of a process that enables the business  reaction and response to continuous waves of disruption.  This process must enable moving from a single stream focus to a multi-stream focus and most importantly the process must be practiced until it becomes second nature.  This is developing a new muscle that is critical to the success of business and the market.  It seems that the majority of people and businesses are so set on returning the pre-pandemic 'normal' that they are overlooking reality and the need to develop methods that can sense and respond.  The telling point, or proof, of this observation is the seemingly never-ending series of black swan events that buffet the global market in waves.  If black swan events occur on a regular basis it means they are not by very definition black swan events.  These are rather the 'new normal' that we must first accept and then embrace and incorporate into our world vision.  

This is difficult, human nature does not want to change and that is the continuous and compelling theme for a significant number of people and by extension businesses and the market as a whole.  This is a struggle for many and our challenge is to provide the road map to sense and respond to the waves of disruption.  I think that we are reaching the point of actually creating a new series of disruptions as a result of not accepting the change and attempting to return to the previous comfort level.

This new process requires a robust risk management process that defines a business continuity program.  The goal of the risk management process is to imagine disruption and the potential for description and then determine how to respond to the disruption.  This is where multi-stream definitions and planning comes into play because as we continuously see demonstrated in real life; disruption impact is a reaction to multiple pressures and events combined to force a reaction.  This requires a risk management and business continuity program that is robust enough to first identify the potential and second identify responses to the waves of disruption that are combined based on the waves of disruption.  

A key issue and single greatest factor to the COVID-19 disruption is not the actual physical and structural disruptions but the lack of imagination and forsight to first imagine the potential and second to imagine a response.  We see this over and over - the so-called black swan even that surprises everyone.  As an example, whether you subscribe to climate change you should be developing response to the weather based disruptions we are experiencing.  

Here is the key challenge; you cannot hope to define all possible risks and define reactions for all posible impacts.  This is where the risk management process comes into play, you must define the potential of the risks and then based on the risk define the potential reaction.  Imagination of the possible allows reaction and response to the reality.  

How can you implement a robust risk mitigation program?

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Thank you for reading my post on Linkedin in addition,  Here at my blog I regularly write about management and technology trends.  To read my future posts on LinkedIn click 'Follow'

Tom Brouillette discusses supply chain trends and provides strategic business & technology advice to his followers and companies.

Risk Scenario Analysis

Risk scenario analysis requires imagination and most importantly collaborative brainstorming in order to identify all risks, even and especially risks that today seem outlandish. As an example, I would have never considered Amazon stopping non-essential product shipments but this is exactly what was enacted as a response to this pandemic. One of the consequences of this action has been a significant impact on small businesses that utilize Amazon for their warehouse and order filling support. This in-tern impacted the success of a great deal of small businesses that were dependant on the Amazon fulfillment services which impacted the livelihood of many employees along with the success of the small business. This then fed into the overall economic impact from the pandemic. This is a great example of the relationships and overall impact of seemingly unrelated decisions on a wide range of people and businesses.

The above example is the key reason why it is so important to perform robust risk scenario analysis. In the example above the impacted businesses now must evaluate the risk of the fulfillment disruption and how they can react to this disruption to support their business. Business must develop a strategic risk management process that views scenarios for any and all risk to the business. Starting in the beginning of this yea the waves of disruption experienced to date have shown that you cannot eliminate a risk because it will never happen. We have gone through a series of disruptions that previously were simply unimaginable as a real risk and so there were no response strategies developed.

The first step is to identify and fully document the risk scenario. This means that the risk scenario must not only identify the potential risk, it must also identify the potential impact to the market and also the business. The definition of the risk is not complete though until you have identified and documented how to sense the risk so that you can execute your planned response. This means that you should identify and document 'outlandish' risks as well as generally accepted risks. The outlandish risk may never materialize however it is important to call out the scenario so that you can take steps to minimize the potential as well as prepare for the realization of the risk.

This is an important point - one of the objectives of the strategic risk analysis and a key outcome are steps that can be taken that will minimize the potential for the risk. This is a concept that needs to become a focus of every risk mitigation strategy because the best way to react to a risk is to eliminate the cause of the risk. Simply defining the risk and the potential impact to the market in general and your business specifically will help to identify how to sense the risk. This exercise of risk identification and early recognition will provide the framework to define the steps necessary to eliminate the risk from occurring.

Risk scenario analysis and mitigation has always been an important aspect of project planning and management. We must institute this same practice now in the supply chain management and business continuity process. As a result of the rate and impact of disruption hitting the market and businesses we must recognize that risk analysis can no longer be viewed as an inward facing exercise. As a result of the disruptions hitting this year we must finally recognize that business continuity must be and outward facing strategy that recognizes early the factors developing of the disruption and takes steps to mitigate and avert major impact.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

Strategic Risk Management To Counter VUCA

Hope For The Best And Plan For The Worst should be a consistent and shared mantra for all businesses as a means to focus on strategic risk management. The importance of this has increased to the highest level as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the activities to both recover and prepare for the next disruption. This requires a significant investment in strategic risk mitigation definition and development and must include partner risk management in the scenario development and risk mitigation strategy. This includes all partners and integrations in the extended supply chain. The weakest link in the supply chain will continuously change depending on the type of disruption and your strategic risk scenarios must be developed to define a response for all scenarios.

One critical activity, or requirement, is implementing a regular risk scenario review process that evaluates the likelihood of scenarios and most importantly, new scenarios. As we have seen from the many disruptions experienced so far this year risk scenarios and potential changes continuously with new risks rising and other risks declining and disappearing. You will never in a million years be able to identify all risks, and the point is that a regular review process provides the means to review so that you can add and remove scenarios as necessary.

The next activity is developing and implementing the appropriate data analytics capabilities that will support the ability to sense the reactions to disruptions and most importantly, the reaction to combinations of disruptions. The risk scenarios must identify the reactions to combinations of disruptions and then you must have a means to measure the responses. This is where data analytics comes into play, along with a healthy helping of imagination. Different disruptions and combinations of disruptions will cause different reactions in the supply chain and these reactions must be identified quickly in order to determine the appropriate response. The risk scenario identification and evaluation is important but it is based on assumptions and personal viewpoints of the team that developed the scenarios. Data analytics brings the facts to the table to help to determine the appropriate response.

The glue that connects these processes and activities is imagination. Risk scenarios require imagination to create, risk response exercises require imagination to develop, data analytics requires imagination to develop the queries and identify the appropriate data and source to identify the reaction to the disruption and then to validate the effectiveness of the response. As you can imagine, this is not a ‘once-and-done’ exercise. This requires continuous review and evaluation in order to grow and evolve with the market and the supply chain. Each disruption and reaction to the disruption creates a new reality stream that changes scenarios and potential for disruption and it is important to continuously evaluate and develop new scenarios.

Data analytics is a very nebulous practice that requires continuous experimentation and evaluation to validate assumptions. The data analytics initially produces the outcome reaction to disruption and combinations. This is only the start, however, because after identification of the outcome you must then try to trace back the results through the responses and combination of responses if you want to tie them back to a particular disruption. I’m not sure that it is critical to tie everything back to a specific disruption though. The point of this whole exercise is to identify a reaction to mitigate the specific business disruption that has occurred and this should be the initial focus. After the mitigation exercise you will need to go back and evaluate the actions that resulted in the disruption on another day.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners

COVID-19 Crashed Into The Economy

Covid-19 crashed into the economy causing supply and demand side disruption that continues to ripple through the supply chain impacting planning and forecasting in addition to transportation, storage and manufacturing disruption. This disruption requires robust data analytics to sense and respond to the dynamic changes that ripple through the economy. The challenge and first priority is developing the capabilities based on a robust data analytics business intelligence model to sense and respond early to risk so that the impact of the continuously changing disruption. This challenge requires a great deal of imagination and focus in order to develop the tools and framework that is both robust and flexible to respond to the disruption.

This is not a single event, it is a significant event in a series of events that will continue to impact the economy and as a result the extended supply chain into the future. This fundamentally changes your business continuity planning requirements to include a larger number of scenarios and combinations of scenarios in order to manage the risk. In addition to the expansion of risk scenarios this also requires more frequent reviews and most importantly - data analytics to sense the disruption early in the life cycle. This combination of additional and improved strategic business risk scenario evaluation and improved analytics to sense the disruption are key to successful response to limit the impact of the disruption.

We have reached the point now in the global market where these capabilities are critical not to the success of your organization but they are now a critical factor in the survival of your organization! The current situation is a perfect example of how risk is driven by multiple events to disrupt. In the last year we have experienced severe climate related events such as wildfires, hurricanes and tornadoes that impact the market and product demands Then add to this the US / China trade war that initiated the manufacturing shift from China to other Asia Pacific countries. Then before the trade war settled the pandemic crashed into the market first impacting manufacturing and flowing through a shut down of the world economy.

All of these factors come together for a 500 year disruption that must be resolved. We must reset our scope and risk management though to plan for the 500 year disruption continuously. In a global market there are so many factors that influence change and disruption along with the impact of the disruption. These factors change with the season and the relationship and impact of the combination of factors require a focused risk scenario strategy in order to sense the factor early so that the response can be identified to limit the disruption.

It is no longer acceptable to react to the disruption after the fact. The disruptions are coming too quickly and more importantly the disruption builds on previous factors and disruption to create new impacts. Your organization will not be able to survive unless you implement a risk management sense and response strategy that is frequently reviewed and revised for new scenarios and responses. The good news is that the tools are available now to support this initiative and only require the focus and priority to develop and monitor the strategy.

COVID-19 Requires Optionized Supply Chain

I have been discussing supply chain disruption for quite a while now as it relates to consumer demands and natural events such as destructive weather. The COVID-19 pandemic now adds a new and even more real, and more serious, disruption that must be addressed. The key underlying challenge is how to address disruption and especially extreme disruption. We have already entered into a time of extreme discontinuous disruption that demands and absolutely requires immediate response to survive and support the demands created from the disruption. We can no longer ignore the disruption cycle and as a result must focus now on an optionized supply chain rather than an optimized supply chain so the response can be supported through pre-planned actions. The critical requirement is to continue the supply chain and minimize disruption through a robust risk sense and respond strategy. This risk management strategy must become a critical aspect to the supply chain management overarching strategic plan.

The global supply chain is a fact of life now and as a result of the length of time this supply chain has been developing, it is now the norm. Frankly, it would require an unreasonable length of time and money to change, and most importantly, the cost would never be recovered. We must look past the angry demands to move manufacturing ‘back to the US’ and instead take a more reasonable approach to accept and plan for disruption and then develop options and practices to quickly and efficiently adjust to disruption. This means adding an enhanced risk analysis and risk management strategy to the supply chain planning and forecasting tool kit. We must now focus on disruption scenario planning and response option development to ensure that we are able to minimize the impact to the supply chain.

The good news is that we already have practices and tools available to enable disruption options risk analysis and determination. The current state of supply chain software with the addition of big data analytics provides the framework for a robust early risk warning capability to allow implementation of options to address the disruption. We must develop the strategy now utilizing the framework of available tools to support the process. The result of this initiative will be a framework of process and procedures that will allow the extended supply chain partners to sense and respond to disruption based on scenarios and options that have been identified previously.

The challenge with implementing the disruption sense and respond risk analysis framework is not the supply chain management tools. These tools are quite robust and provide the capabilities to adjust quickly and efficiently to the disruptions in a truly efficient manner. These tools over the years have progressed to a state of flexibility in configuration capabilities that is truly quite amazing. The flexibility and configurability has been built into the software to allow a super user to support standard and general maintenance requirements without support of an engineer or software developer. These configuration capabilities I believe are quite capable to support the demands of the ‘optionized’ supply chain to support the risk sense and response framework.

The challenge now from a technology perspective is related to sensing and identification of the risk in a timeframe that allows the supply chain to identify and then implement the appropriate configuration options to manage and flourish during and (most importantly) after, the disruption event. Fortunately, big data and analytics has reached a state that is beginning to support the requirements to sense and determine how to respond to the disruption based on a predetermined business continuity plan. The analytics requires an efficient tool in order to bring the data together from disparate sources into a pool where the analytics can be utilized. This is one of the new continuing supply chain management requirements.

This leads to the next challenge which is to define a robust and flexible business continuity plan that provides suggestions for predetermined options based on the type of disruption. This business continuity plan takes on new meaning and also new use in the supply chain. This plan must be extended first to identify any type of business and supply chain disruption that may occur and then identify the potential for the disruption (risk) along with configuration options to react and adjust to the disruption. In my experience, the business continuity plan has been reviewed at a minimum and normally on an annual basis. The review process must be more rigorous and reviewed more frequently in order to provide the flexibility and direction required to address disruption.

I suggest a two-pronged focus on the review of the business continuity plan to extend the types of disruption and the potential impact along with identification and implementation of a data analytics tool that supports efficient and flexible identification of disruption early. It is most important to identify the potential for disruption so that you can react early and adjust to address the disruption prior to serious supply chain impact. The key focus must be the big data analytics in order to sense and respond to the disruption. Disruption is a way of life now, it is critical to manage the disruption in a way that limits the supply chain disruption.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com



@ncspartners