Risk Scenario Analysis

Risk scenario analysis requires imagination and most importantly collaborative brainstorming in order to identify all risks, even and especially risks that today seem outlandish. As an example, I would have never considered Amazon stopping non-essential product shipments but this is exactly what was enacted as a response to this pandemic. One of the consequences of this action has been a significant impact on small businesses that utilize Amazon for their warehouse and order filling support. This in-tern impacted the success of a great deal of small businesses that were dependant on the Amazon fulfillment services which impacted the livelihood of many employees along with the success of the small business. This then fed into the overall economic impact from the pandemic. This is a great example of the relationships and overall impact of seemingly unrelated decisions on a wide range of people and businesses.

The above example is the key reason why it is so important to perform robust risk scenario analysis. In the example above the impacted businesses now must evaluate the risk of the fulfillment disruption and how they can react to this disruption to support their business. Business must develop a strategic risk management process that views scenarios for any and all risk to the business. Starting in the beginning of this yea the waves of disruption experienced to date have shown that you cannot eliminate a risk because it will never happen. We have gone through a series of disruptions that previously were simply unimaginable as a real risk and so there were no response strategies developed.

The first step is to identify and fully document the risk scenario. This means that the risk scenario must not only identify the potential risk, it must also identify the potential impact to the market and also the business. The definition of the risk is not complete though until you have identified and documented how to sense the risk so that you can execute your planned response. This means that you should identify and document 'outlandish' risks as well as generally accepted risks. The outlandish risk may never materialize however it is important to call out the scenario so that you can take steps to minimize the potential as well as prepare for the realization of the risk.

This is an important point - one of the objectives of the strategic risk analysis and a key outcome are steps that can be taken that will minimize the potential for the risk. This is a concept that needs to become a focus of every risk mitigation strategy because the best way to react to a risk is to eliminate the cause of the risk. Simply defining the risk and the potential impact to the market in general and your business specifically will help to identify how to sense the risk. This exercise of risk identification and early recognition will provide the framework to define the steps necessary to eliminate the risk from occurring.

Risk scenario analysis and mitigation has always been an important aspect of project planning and management. We must institute this same practice now in the supply chain management and business continuity process. As a result of the rate and impact of disruption hitting the market and businesses we must recognize that risk analysis can no longer be viewed as an inward facing exercise. As a result of the disruptions hitting this year we must finally recognize that business continuity must be and outward facing strategy that recognizes early the factors developing of the disruption and takes steps to mitigate and avert major impact.

Tom Brouillette

Contact: tbrouillette@ncspartners.com

@ncspartners